“中国大妈”梦断黄金 2013市场走势四大阶段(转载)
“中国大妈”梦断黄金 2013市场走势四大阶段投资黄金要把握长线持有心态，避免短期过度投机
2013年，“中国大妈”火了，与华尔街大鳄对决、与CPI赛跑……造就了“中国大妈”的黄金时代。而让“中国大妈”火起来的就是黄金，今年以来，曾经连续上涨12年的黄金遭遇了“滑铁卢”，并且成为了2013年贵金属市场的领跌品种。
相关统计数据显示，2013年4月12日、9月12日、10月11日、11月20日、11月26日，国际金价不断上演“高台跳水”，在不断跳水的同时还触发了交易所的熔断保护机制，使市场交易被暂停。用“跌跌不休”来形容今年的黄金市场一点儿也不过分，在空头氛围弥漫下，全年市场的主旋律就是下跌。
证金贵金属高级分析师李世兴在接受《证券日报》记者采访时指出，造成黄金2013年惨淡下挫的原因主要在于，首先，随着全球经济的逐步复苏，削弱了黄金的保值需求；其次，美国经济数据表现靓丽，为美联储退出量化宽松政策提供了必要条件；与此同时，中东局势暂时缓和以及欧债危机的缓解弱化了贵金属的避险需求。在种种条件影响下，空头市场完全占据了主动。
具体来看，2013年黄金市场的走势可以分为四个阶段：
第一阶段是1月份到3月份，此时的黄金市场开始出现缓慢下跌的现象，但是整体跌幅并不是很大，大多数投资者在这个阶段的观望心理开始逐渐加重。世界黄金协会发布的第一季度《黄金需求趋势报告》显示，今年第一季度，世界黄金需求量同比下降13%。黄金需求价值为510亿美元，同比下降16%；平均金价为1632美元/盎司，同比下降3%，国际金价已经显露出了下跌的态势。
第二阶段是4月份到6月份，市场出现断崖式下挫，空头力量来势凶猛，跌幅达26%，整个二季度成为全年跌幅最大的阶段。随着黄金价格的大幅下挫，“中国大妈”在该阶段加入了抄底的队伍，一度让市场感到震惊，“中国大妈”的名号也由此被世界所熟知。当然，随着金价在第二阶段中的进一步下挫，“中国大妈”们最终也难逃被套的现实。世界黄金协会的报告显示，尽管包括中国、印度等经济体消费者“逢低抢购”金饰、金条，但二季度全球黄金的总需求仍下降了12%，为856吨，这时黄金的避险功能也让业界产生了疑虑。
第三阶段是7月份到8月份，市场出现了本年度唯一一波像样的反弹，金价从低位上涨了20%，投资者也开始有了购入黄金的冲动，虽然在这个阶段短暂的出现了一些抢购黄金的现象，但是一个4月份的“抢金潮”不可同日而语，“中国大妈”在这个阶段依稀看到了解套的希望，但这依然不足以掩盖市场空头的氛围。
从9月份开始至今，黄金市场进入了本年度第四个阶段。然而，在进入9月份之后，国际金价并没有延续此前两个月的反弹，黄金市场反而出现了重归熊途的现象，截至目前，国际金价的下跌幅度已达13%。被套的“中国大妈”们再次陷入迷茫，空荡荡的黄金卖场以及被捂得十分严实的钱包，让市场观望的氛围愈加浓重起来。
李世兴认为，从当前的黄金价格看，“中国大妈”们手中的黄金被套已成事实，而这种经济现象给我们的启示是，对于黄金投资，一定要清楚投资的目的是什么，黄金投资能够带给我们什么。对于普通投资者而言，投资黄金还是要把握长线持有的心态，避免短期的过度投机，心智成熟才能更好地规避市场波动带来的风险。
To grasp the long-term holders of gold investment mentality , to avoid excessive short-term speculation
????2013 , " Chinese Mother " fire, and the Wall Street predators showdown with CPI race ...... created a " Chinese Mother " golden age. And let the " Chinese Mother " is to fire up the gold this year, had 12 years of continuous rise in gold suffered a " Waterloo ," and became the 2013 varieties of precious metals markets led the declines .
????Related statistics show , April 12, 2013 , September 12 , October 11 , November 20 , November 26 , the international price of gold continue to unfold , " high dive " , constantly diving , while also triggering transaction fuse protection mechanism , so that market trading is suspended. With " stumble endlessly " to describe this year's gold market is not too little , in short atmosphere filled under the annual theme of the market is falling.
????Certificate Precious Metals senior analyst李世兴accept the " Securities Daily " reporters that the main cause of decline in gold in 2013 is bleak , first of all, with the gradual recovery of the global economy , increasing the demand for gold weakened ; Second, the U.S. economy beautiful performance data for the Fed to exit quantitative easing policy is a necessary condition ; Meanwhile , the situation in the Middle East eased temporarily ease the debt crisis in Europe and weakening demand for the precious metal 's safe-haven . Under the influence of various conditions , bear market completely take the initiative .
????Specifically, in 2013 the trend of the gold market can be divided into four stages:
????The first stage is January to March , when the gold market began a slow decline of the phenomenon , but the overall decline is not great, most investors are waiting to see the beginning of this phase of psychological gradually worsened . World Gold Council released the first quarter of " Gold Demand Trends report " shows that in the first quarter of this year, world gold demand fell 13%. Gold demand value for $ 51 billion , down 16% ; average gold price of $ 1,632 / oz , down 3 percent , the international price of gold has begun to show a downward trend .
????The second stage is April to June , the market tumbled cliff -type , short power ferocious , down 26% annual decline throughout the second quarter to become the biggest stage. With the sharp decline in gold prices , " Chinese Mother " at this stage to join the ranks of hunters , was to let the market was shocked , " Chinese Mother " label has thus been known to the world . Of course, with the price of gold fell further in the second stage , the " Chinese Mother " who ultimately could not escape the reality of the quilt . Report of the World Gold Council showed that despite including China , India and other economies, consumers ' bargain buy " gold , gold bullion , but in the second quarter of total global demand for gold is still down 12 % to 856 tons , then avoid gold feature also allows insurance industry had doubts.
????The third stage is July to August , this year the only market in the wave of rallies , gold rose 20% from the lows , investors began to have the urge to buy gold , although at this stage appeared briefly Some buying gold phenomenon, but an April 's " gold rush boom" is quite different, " Chinese Mother " at this stage seem to see the hope of some sort of relief , but still not enough to cover up the atmosphere of the market short .
????From September start date, the gold market has entered a fourth stage this year. However , after entering in September , the international price of gold does not continue after a two-month rally , but there was rwww.lun-dun-jin.com/1130.htmleturn to the gold market Xiongtu phenomenon , as of now , the international gold price decline has reached 13%. Quilt " Chinese Mother " once again confused and empty stores of gold and is a wallet cover was very tight , let the market waiting to see atmosphere increasingly strong together .
????Lishi Xing believes , from the current price of gold watch , " Chinese Mother " in the hands of gold quilt is a fact , and this economic phenomenon inspiration to us , for gold investment , we must know what the purpose of the investment is gold investment can bring us anything. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is to grasp the mentality of long-term holdings , to avoid excessive short-term speculation, grow up in order to better avoid the risk of market fluctuations.
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